IMPLAN Blog

Spring break tourism has historically served as a reliable seasonal driver of Mexico’s economy. However, increasing concerns regarding cartel-related violence may significantly disrupt visitor flows and the associated economic activity.

A scenario analysis was conducted to assess the potential impact if 15% of planned spring break trips to Mexico during March and April were canceled. Tourism spending is a highly interconnected driver of economic activity, supporting industries such as hotels, airlines, restaurants, retail shops, and transportation services.

IMPLAN’s international tourism visitor spending patterns and a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) analysis between Mexico and the United States were used to model how a reduction in international travel would affect both economies.

The results indicate that even a modest decline in spring break travel could trigger a multi-billion-dollar economic shock, impacting employment, industry output, and tax revenues in both countries.