The world economy experienced drastic changes in 2020 as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic. In order to address these drastic economic changes in our data, IMPLAN has released its second ever quarterly data set. The Evolving Economy - COVID Q3-2020 data captures the initial stages of the economic recovery in 2020. This data set, which is equipped to perform all forms of impact analysis modeling, is available now in the IMPLAN application.
Understanding the Data
How does the Evolving Economy data differ from IMPLAN’s annual data?
The Evolving Economy data sets have the same data points and capabilities as annual IMPLAN data. Just like the Q2-2020 data, the COVID Q3-2020 data is an annualized data set based on the economy as it was in the third quarter of 2020. Unlike our annual data releases which are representative of a complete year’s data, this set provides a snapshot of what an entire year would look like at the levels of production at that point in time.
Is the data a summation of Q1 through Q3 of 2020?
No, the Evolving Economy - COVID Q3-2020 data is a snapshot of the economy just in the third quarter of 2020. Just like the Q2-2020 data set, the data is annualized and seasonally adjusted. This means it is structured as if the third quarter of 2020 were representative of the entirety of the year 2020. The Evolving Economy COVID data sets are constructed in this manner so you can compare them to IMPLAN 2019 data or any other Data Year to see differences in your Region.
Can I run an economic impact analysis with COVID Q3-2020 data?
Yes, the data is equipped to run economic impact studies. The Evolving Economy - COVID Q3-2020 is impactable and available for use with any type of analysis in the IMPLAN application.
Where does the data come from?
Our Data Team relied on data points from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CES and labor productivity data and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data to create the COVID Q3-2020 data set. Between the COVID 2020-Q2 and Q3 data set releases, the BEA released quarterly data on the components of Value Added (Employee Compensation, gross operating surplus, and Taxes on Production and Imports net of subsidies), personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and private fixed investment in equipment. These updated values provided crucial insight to the Q3-2020 data.
What pandemic related events are represented in the data?
While no stimulus payments were delivered in Q3, pandemic relief efforts and economic changes were very present at that point in time. Some items factored into the COVID Q3-2020 data include:
- Unemployment Benefits - Unemployment benefits remained boosted. Their effect on spending and levels of saving is reflected in the Household Social Accounting Matrix (SAM).
- Shifts in Household Spending Behavior - The changes in the relative amounts that households spent among various commodities as a result of the pandemic (e.g., more spending on cleaning products) are also reflected in the Household SAM.
- PPP Loans - Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans were treated as industry subsidies and are reflected in that manner within the tax data. These loans result in reductions in Taxes on Production and Imports (TOPI) and increases in Other Property Income (OPI).
- First Signs of Recovery - Many industries began returning to some state of normalcy during Q3 when compared with some devastating losses in Q2. This is reflected in the data set.
- Continued Industry Losses - While some industries saw growth in Q3, not all did. The regional shutdowns, minimized workforces, decreased Intermediate Inputs and international exports, and business model adjustments that affected some industries and regions in Q2 are also evident in the more recent data set.
Using the Data
Are there noticeable differences between the Q2 and Q3 data sets?
Yes, many industries and regions which were deeply affected by the initial coronavirus-related response experienced significant gains during Q3 2020 and those gains are represented in this data set. This is noteworthy in industries like Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores, Personal and Laundry Services, Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries, Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores, and Food Services and Drinking Places.
Can you identify what businesses received PPP loans and how they benefited?
No, identifying businesses that received PPP loans is not within the capabilities of this data set. PPP loans are captured in the underlying tax data, however, and are treated as industry subsidies.
Can I analyze the impact of my PPP loan?
There is not a straightforward way to analyze a PPP loan received by your company. However, there are situations in which modeling the impact of your business could be tied to a PPP allotment. For instance, if your business would have been forced to close permanently without assistance, an Industry Contribution Analysis run using the number of employees the business supports could answer this question. This is not the case for all loans though.
More to Come
Will there be a Q4-2020 data set and additional quarterly data sets in the future?
Yes, IMPLAN will continue to publish updated quarterly data sets, but the COVID Q3-2020 data will be the final set released in the IMPLAN application. Further quarterly data sets will be found exclusively in the IMPLAN Data Library and will not be equipped for impact analysis modeling.
Will the Q2 or Q3-2020 data sets be updated in the future as more data is released for that period of time?
No, the quarterly data sets are released in their final, complete form at the time of publication. For those interested in the entire portrait of the 2020 economy, the annual data set will be released at the end of 2021.
Interested in checking out the Evolving Economy - COVID Q3-2020 Data for yourself? Check it out now.