International students have long been important contributors to the U.S. economy, not only through tuition payments but also through their everyday spending in the communities where they study. Beyond classrooms and campuses, international students support local restaurants, retail stores, healthcare providers, housing markets, and more.

But as new restrictions and heightened uncertainty around international enrollment take hold, the potential loss of this spending represents a significant risk to both local economies and the national economy. 

This IMPLAN analysis examines what happens if foreign student spending in the U.S. declines. To account for near-term uncertainty, we modeled the effect of a 10% reduction in student expenditures.

Key Findings

1. A $3.4 Billion Hit to U.S. GDP for Every 10% Drop in Spending

On average, international students spend about $35,000 per year in their local communities after tuition. For every 10% decline in this spending nationally, the economy would lose:

• $3.4 billion in GDP
• 26,800 jobs
• $1.8 billion in labor income

The jobs most at risk are in everyday service industries that rely on student spending. These include:

• Restaurants
• Hospitals
• Doctors’ offices
• Food & beverage stores
• General merchandise retail

2. Job Losses Concentrated in Service Sectors

The reduction in demand would ripple across a wide range of positions. For every 10% decline in foreign student spending, expected annual job losses include:

• Food service workers: 2,800
• Retail sales: 2,400
• Office support roles: 2,300
• Healthcare support staff: 1,700
• Material movers: 1,600

3. Local Economies Across the Country Will Feel the Impact

While every state benefits from the presence of international students, some regions are especially vulnerable. For every 10% drop in foreign student spending, projected losses in the top four most impacted states are:

• Massachusetts: 1,800 jobs and $260 million in GDP
• North Carolina: 600 jobs and $70 million in GDP
• Wisconsin: 400 jobs and $44 million in GDP
• Texas: 2,500 jobs and $300 million in GDP

These impacts extend far beyond university towns, affecting entire state economies.

Future Implications

The effects of declining international student enrollment will be both immediate and long-term. In the short term, local businesses lose critical revenue as fewer students spend in their communities. Over time, universities may adjust through strategies like remote learning, but the broader economic ecosystem built around in-person international enrollment cannot be easily replaced.

As policymakers and institutions weigh the future of international student policy, the economic stakes are clear: even modest declines in student spending have meaningful consequences for GDP, jobs, and local economies nationwide.

Understanding the full ripple effects of policy changes like those affecting international students requires more than surface-level estimates. With IMPLAN, you can quantify economic impacts down to the industry, occupation, and regional level, helping you make data-driven decisions and communicate them clearly to stakeholders. Schedule a demo today to see it in action!