For decades, U.S. economic growth has been predicated on the assumption that population increases drive greater demand. This foundational premise is now being challenged.
Recent U.S. Census Bureau data indicate a significant shift in the nation’s demographic trajectory. U.S. population growth declined from approximately 1.0% in 2024 to 0.5% in the twelve months ending June 30, 2025. This slowdown, driven by lower birth rates and reduced international migration, has produced immediate and quantifiable economic consequences.
A slower-growing population means a slower-growing customer base. In 2024, the U.S. added 3.2 million new residents. In 2025, that number dropped to 1.8 million, leaving a growth gap of roughly 1.4 million fewer people contributing to housing demand, retail spending, and service consumption.
IMPLAN was utilized to model the economic implications of this demographic slowdown by quantifying the forgone consumption associated with the 1.4 million 'missing' residents and the subsequent ripple effects.
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